31 October 2023, Emirates NBD
The UAE Minister of Economy, speaking at the Alternative Investment Management Summit in Dubai yesterday, highlighted the UAE’s robust economic performance in the first half of 2023. UAE GDP grew 3.7% y/y in the first 6 months of the year, with a particularly strong performance in non-oil GDP which grew 5.9% y/y.
The risks of a recession in the Eurozone’s largest economy remain, with news of a 0.1% q/q fall in German GDP in Q3. While the print was marginally above expectations for a 0.2% q/q decline, and there were small upward revisions to growth in both Q1 and Q2 GDP, recent weakness in surveys point to further weakness in the remaining months of the year. The statistical authority has yet to publish a detailed breakdown of GDP, but the press release flagged a fall in household consumption.
Weakness in German economic activity appears to be filtering through to inflation, with the preliminary October EU harmonized CPI print declining 0.2% m/m. The October figure was below consensus expectations of 0.1% m/m, and sharply lower than the 0.2% growth seen in September. On an annual basis that left the harmonized measure at 3%, significantly below September’s 4.3% y/y rise.
Japanese industrial production disappointed ahead of the Bank of Japan meeting today, gaining just 0.2% m/m in September. Markets had been expecting a 2.5% m/m gain, after industrial production fell 0.7% the month prior.
Today’s key economic data and events
10:30 FR GDP (Q3) forecast: 0.0% q/q
11:45 FR CPI (Oct) forecast: 4% y/y
14:00 EC GDP (Q3) forecast: 0.0% q/q
14:00 EC CPI (Oct) forecast: 0.3% m/m
US Treasury yields rose on Monday, with safe-haven demand dropping off slightly. The 2yr UST yield rose 5bps to 5.054% while 10y yields gained 6bp to 4.8942%.
Yields were generally lower across major European economies, with the exception of the UK and Portugal. The 10yr Gilt yield gained 2bps to 4.558%, while the 10yr German Bund yields declined 1bps to 2.82%.
The dollar fell against a basket of major currencies yesterday. EURUSD gained 0.47% to 1.0615, while GBPUSD rose 0.4% to 1.217. USDJPY also fell 0.37% to reach 149.1.
Commodity currencies also gained against the dollar. AUDUSD and NZDUSD both gained around 0.6% to reach 0.6374 and 0.5844, respectively. USDCAD declined 0.32% to 1.3826.
US Equity markets improved on Monday, with an ebbing of geo-political tensions. The Dow Jones gained 1.5%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose 1.2% on the day.
There were also gains across major European equity indices, despite disappointing GDP data from Germany. The Eurostoxx 50 gained 0.35%, the FTSE 100 rose 0.5%, and the DAX rose 0.2%.
Locally, the DFMGI closed up 1.38% while the ADGI gained 0.57%.
There were falls in both Brent and WTI on Monday. Brent declined 3.35% to USD 87.45/b and WTI fell 3.78% to end at USD 82.31/b.