07 November 2023, Emirates NBD
Ruler of Dubai and Vice President of the UAE Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid has approved the emirate’s budget for the years 2024-2026, it was announced yesterday. The plan earmarks expenditure of AED 246.6bn (USD 67.1bn) over the period, with AED 79.1bn planned for fiscal 2024. This marks a 17.2% increase on last year’s allocated budget, which was itself a 13% rise on the previous year’s. Salaries and wages, grants and government support expenditures, and general and administrative expenditures all account for roughly a quarter of planned spending each. The 2024 budget anticipates revenue of AED 90.6bn. The press release notes that Dubai’s budget balance will be in surplus at 3.3% of GDP over the 2024-26 period. We predict a surplus of 2.2% of GDP next year. The Dubai government’s aim remains to double the emirate’s GDP over the next decade, and the announced budget reaffirms the strategy of building the economy through the Dubai Strategic Plan 2030 and the Dubai Economic Agenda D33 which look to build up key industries and encourage inward investment. The allocation of 8% of the budget to construction projects underscores the commitment to ongoing infrastructure investment.
Chinese exports were down 6.4% y/y in October, a sharper annual decline than the 6.2% in September, and missing the projected 3.5% decline. By contrast, imports were up 3.0% y/y, from -6.3% in September and beating the projected -5.0%.
German factory orders surprised to the upside in September as they expanded 0.2% m/m, compared to the predicted 1.5% contraction. However, the August figure was revised down to 1.9% growth, from 3.9% previously. Orders were down 4.3% y/y. There was another upside surprise in the Sentix investor confidence index for November released yesterday which came in at -18.6, beating the predicted -22.2 and compared with -21.9 in October. The uptick was driven primarily by an improvement in the expectations subcomponent which rose from -16.8 to -10.0, while the current situation was largely unchanged.
Today’s key economic data and events
11:00 Germany industrial production, % m/m, September. Forecast: -0.1%
The sharp rally in US treasuries last week petered out as concerns around the impact of lower yields on the Fed’s ability to end its rate hiking came to the fore. Yields on the 2yr UST added 10bps to 4.9345%, its largest jump since mid-October, while the 10yr ticked up 7bps to 4/6431%.
It was reported yesterday that Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank has mandated banks for a benchmark 5yr USD green sukuk, while in Turkey the treasury said on Monday that it has mandated banks for a 5yr USD sukuk.
The dollar turned around losses earlier in the day to gain against its peers on Monday, following on from the sharp losses at the close of last week. The DXY index ended the day 0.2% higher.
The gains came at the expense of all of the majors as the EUR lost 0.1% to 1.0718, GBP closed 0.3% lower at 1.2344 and JPY breached the 150.0 mark once more to close at 150.07, down 0.5% on the day.
Commodity currencies also lost ground as CAD, AUD, and NZD fell 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.6% respectively.
Asian equity markets followed Wall Street’s strong Friday performance yesterday with strong gains to start the week. The Hang Seng closed up 1.7%, while the Nikkei added 2.4%. In South Korea the KOSPI closed up 5.7% on the day after the regulator banned short selling until June 2024.
Elsewhere there was less concrete direction as the upward momentum of the previous week settled down and concerns around higher rates returned to the fore. European equities sold off as the DAX lost 0.4% and the CAC 0.5%, although the FTSE 100 managed to close flat. There were soft gains in the US as the S&P 500 closed up 0.2%.
Locally, the ADX added 0.4% and the DFM 0.7%. Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul closed 0.1% higher.
Oil prices picked up on Monday following the 6% drop over the previous week, with a pledge by Saudi Arabia and Russia to maintain their voluntary production cuts over the rest of the year serving to underpin prices.
Brent futures closed up 0.3% to USD 85.2/b, while WTI added 0.4% to USD 80.8/b. Both benchmarks are lower in early trading this morning, however.